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Thursday, 16 February 2012
Mortgage financing is the largest land financial risk

Currently, land tax revenue and land related the tax revenue, although both in the total GDP of or than, are bigger, but, in land financial income, which accounts for the bulk of actually or land financing income.

In 2010, the national tax revenue of RMB 7.3202 trillion yuan (including a lot of land and the related is tax revenue) in that same period, the land grant fee for 2.7 trillion yuan. And according to the central bank "2010 China regional financial operation report" disclosure, platform in RMB loans in the loan (late 2010 RMB loan balance of 47.92 trillion yuan) than not account for more than 30%, the size of the loan platform with estimated 14.4 trillion yuan.

In the platform of loans, there are some mortgage pledge to give priority to, and in mortgage pledge again with land mortgage is given priority to, and the local New Era Hats government of the income source, and mainly depends on land financial, therefore, many people worry that, once the housing downturn, the quality of these credit assets became a problem.

Let a person feel accident quite, from the 2010 China regional financial operation in the report on the "local government financing platform loan analysis' look, the central bank loans to the safety of the credit assets platform guard, seems to be will treasure in the pledged collateral and mortgage, the central bank said in a report: 'financial institutions to local government financing platform the loan risk management policy from previously excessive dependence on local government credit gradually to implement measures against the pledged collateral, transfer. '

As is known to all, the bank lending, the basis of issuing basically has two: the lender and the value of the collateral income level. According to international practice, bank loan conditions and qualifications in the review, the most important is not collateral, but is to be the lender income, cash flow, reimbursement ability and credit conditions, this is usually the first income source said. In the process of loans, once will pass by credit risk the tomb before turned to borrow, to the second income source to the attention of the collateral for more than the first income source to the attention of the lender, so, from loans this view, the bank also became 'pawnshops'.

Historical experience tells us, in the risk control, 'the pawnshop' is far from the modern bank. Today, modern Cheap sunglasses '" also is the harm of the pawnshop, when in lending to emphasize "implement touch, the pledged collateral measures transfer", also be equal to strengthen the real estate (strictly, land) as the bank credit evaluation basis. In this case, the real estate market price rises and falls, through the market comparison conduction, eventually evolve into extremely easily money and credit contraction and the radical expansion of sharp, leading to economic entity of sharply heat and cold snap.

On May 30 day night, a relevant domestic programs in 3 months clean up $463 billion of debt of local electric, causing the stock market especially bank shares plummeted. Although, the relevant departments to dampen quickly, the news is not true, but, virtual economy era, is enough to anyone having trouble with a warning to paradises, has repeatedly left a deep impression on us.

Financial mortgage financing risk land, not only confined place debt beyond the local government scale is the limits of, more in commercial Banks and policy Banks for a variety of reasons have finally first reimbursement from had become a pawn in ' ', to China's capital market and macroeconomic bring to the potential risk of falling.


Posted by terminalcables at 9:21 PM EST
Wednesday, 15 February 2012
Gem public financing also again please wait

Gem companies also need to financing, these companies spend money fast is amazing. Originally, the listing on the gem companies basic is a few small companies, according to normal development, these companies to fund throughput is more limited. And these companies in IPO and through the 'three tenors "when released, offering got huge amounts of money, or even a lot of the funds raised. To lamesa, pharmaceutical, for example, this company in October 30, 2009 the gem landing, when IPO to raise funds to the net amount is 350 million yuan, including the offering for the amount of $206 million. However, less than two years, the company will be 206 million yuan from the amount spent light, and puts forward the requirements of the refinancing, its money fast is obviously not general of small and medium-sized companies than.

Of course, since the beauty of choice, pharmaceutical way of short-term financing bonds, not disturb them A share market, to this, investors pour also relieved many. However, not other companies are also not to disturb them A share investors, in fact, the cursor, the blue gem, and made think network technology companies have to try and Calvin refinancing wish, hope through the issuance of stocks to buy related assets.

The gem companies through the equity financing for the financing behavior of the necessary to be treated differently. As deputy general manager zhou Ming that that, to try to simplify merger and reorganization review procedures, strongly support the company to a New Era Hats third party without connection issuance of shares for the acquisition of assets. Like blue cursor, the network technology, and made think Calvin companies such as the issuance of stocks hope to buy related assets approach, because is targeted issuance, not to the public investors are also not to particular objects from the financial information, therefore, this kind of justice issue of the financing way again, might as well the approved at an early date.

But for the social public investors public again and for the particular object of financing financial financing, it is necessary to wait. First is the gem companies are IPO "three tenors' issue, the company has a large number of super funds raised, and these super funds raised yet more than seventy percent is still in the idle state, and thus, gem of the refinancing problem is not urgent.

Second, some of the gem company funds raised the use of the obvious lack of planning a investment, the capital easy come, when spending lavishly. These funds can bring the size of the benefits, but also need time to inspection. If the companies would have is in spending money, to open it again for the gem of the financing of the gate, this is not only to investors not responsible for, but also of the gem listing company's not responsible. Because of the baseball hats gem of the blind investment company results, bring enterprise is not the development opportunity, but huge burden, even as the development of the enterprise burdensome. Therefore, in the huge funds raised the gem of the investment has not seen the revenue or failing to meet the expected earnings before, must stop to these company for refinancing.

So, despite the gem companies to financing requirements have up-to-date, high frequency, single financing the characteristics of small amount, but the gem in ipo issuer encircling money into the system, the gem should no longer make the financing system of the company into the stock market gem cash machines. Gem companies refinancing, but its share out bonus or junk-rated must return to link. If not to make public investors with corresponding cash dividends, even if be small financing also not line.


Posted by terminalcables at 8:55 PM EST
Tuesday, 14 February 2012
Push international board boost confidence not by the spectrum

As the stock market prices remain low temperature and the once the international board heat wave, recently appear restless again. Recently, the well-known economists in the new century of xie wrote "start calling for international board". Xie said, start international board can promote market confidence, to boost A shares rise.

In the market is sluggish, Andy xie, called for "international board" is clearly start undesirable. However, it is not strange. In the current world economic recovery slow, European and American economic crisis situation, some countries have reached out to China the hand of asking for help, hoping China to buy more of their national debt. As for foreign natural also hope to catch China this help straw. Like HSBC holdings face crisis plans to shed 30000 jobs (this year already cut 8000 jobs), if can successfully on the international board, melts to a huge funds, this is beneficial to HSBC through the crisis. Therefore, as with deep background of foreign New Era Hats capital for Andy xie, for international board called for it is quite normal.

But not normal is, for the launch of the international board Andy xie, find a ridiculous excuse, say start international board can promote confidence, this is too not by the spectrum.

At present the A share market investor confidence is the lack of obvious, but to say launch international board can promote market confidence and I'm afraid is reversed, is black and white, at least, I'm not letter.

The A share market investors why lack of confidence? In the final analysis is A shares is A circle money city. For the issuer in service purpose, under the guidance of the stock market became the issuer heaven, hell for the investors. Especially in recent years, under the guise of issuance in the market, the ipo issuer became a naked encircling money behavior. Plus, not taking the refinancing size, form along with all the A share market three set blood machine, and every day from the stock market cylinders in blood. But the flipside is that investors interests get protection, investors should not return of investment, the listed company to encircle money for all kinds of illegal behavior. In the face of such market, investors have no faith is very normal, confident but not normal.

And the international board and can't change the above out many of the existence of the problem, instead, also have A share market circle of increased foreign money object, this is actually increased the A share market encircling money strength. So all this, and how to improve market confidence? On the contrary, it will only make investors more lack confidence. Especially, at this stage of the world economic situation is not optimistic, Europe and the United States economy is full of crisis, let these countries and baseball hats areas of the enterprise to the a-share listed, this undoubtedly give A share market with great investment risk. A shares what investors with these foreign company necessary danger? The A share market and what is the need to hand this risk bringing in?

Maybe the words can as Andy xie xie preach international board footnote: international board will help the world economy, to China's economy can be a good thing. International slabs if there are any more benefits for China's economy, is still a mystery (perhaps only harmful). But will help the world economy is concerned, this kind of view is obviously take China as the savior of the world. A far more than Europe and America, poor Chinese behind how to act as the savior of the world? Especially the board launch, at the present time, and will sacrifice domestic the interests of investors, China is necessary to pretend, through the sacrifice of the interests of the people of the world have to act as a savior? China should not do such a stupid thing, and China is not the savior of the world, to this, people must have self-knowledge.


Posted by terminalcables at 9:20 PM EST
Monday, 13 February 2012
Place debt issuance

Local debt issuance don't become the new channel debt waste

Local debts finally try out, perhaps this is the replacement of a temporary land fiscal measures, however, in a sense, the local debt and land the change of the market closely related. Now the land market downturn in again, so, 10 trillion place debt risk will be exposed.

Bank credit is the main source of local debt fund, 80% or so, land market downturn, will reduce the value of the mortgage on land valuations, local debt risk may adversely affect the entire financial system. From the experience to see, if the local government can't get rid of financial dependence on land, then, even if this round of developers money collecting problems, many developers collapse, but first, a local government is in a year, not a prime couldn't stand the place.

Something like this is really sad. Who will be from the land, the key is to do up the local economy. But, from the financial crisis, the global government only two strokes can go: a move is the managers, significant debt, deficit up welfare, the MLB hats result is the debt, social unrest, white-collar revolution, Wall Street white-collar workers in high inflation and high unemployment blow, to the streets, scorned seal of bank note, peaks. A move the tightening fiscal and save money, the result is economic depression, protesting Greek states. Perhaps, we have to face this two strokes, are not good idea.

Seal of bank note can only lead to the collapse of the evaluation system, the scourge of the root of the market economy. Inflation type distribution of wealth, caused the capital asset bubbles, increasing the cost of living, dilute the hard-earned money of the people, and to reduce the notes purchasing power. Only can let the economy more chaos, people more irritated. This recruit absolutely get one, also can't go. Issue bonds and also want moderation, bonds hair, the hair is equal to the currency. We pointed out that the United States Treasury bonds in improving the upper limit when points out, seal and translated in essence notes is consistent, without any difference. All grew up in the help of the government, to waste, no single person buried, and finally let all the taxpayers foot the bills. We can understand, why global financial rob so hate to the United States, the American people are for Wall Street so angry, the reason is very simple, that is printed notes from the depredations of most of the baseball hats wealth, more than limit, dry disaster, let most of people take risks. This is the logic of rogue, you don't save me you also have a hard time. You to save him and he will be partitioned the relief funds, it is the American investment Banks doing. The fed's printing of bank note is the global financial crisis of the frequent direct source.

We don't know tightening fiscal will give the world so what kind of risk, Obama urged other countries implement the positive fiscal policy, in order to avoid the growth of the global loss of power, in fact, in the present, and the crisis of old Europe except to solve the crisis of the banknote printing works, more important is tightening fiscal, live within your means. Long live the debt has come to an end, because the money illusion with the collapse of the notes system, scam has to remain in the world. The number of people not only focus on currency, pay more attention to the actual purchasing power of money. Only the shine on a demon mirror out purchasing power, people can see clear, a so-called asset bubble, the going is actually notes itself. Convert the after perspective, it was found that, through the crisis, must retrench the good work industry, innovation, can out of the reality of the crisis. In China's case, big government of the cuts, decrease the fiscal expenditure, may be more important. The government itself is a service management institutions, itself is not create value, if this piece of excessive inflation, control too many resources, market economic damage is very big.


Posted by terminalcables at 8:58 PM EST
Sunday, 12 February 2012
Face trade disputes

For a long time, and expand the market 'access' almost become the pronoun of trade liberalization. However, the world trade organization on January 30 days in China are limited to nine export raw materials have a case ruling, confirmed that Chinese to these raw material implementation export tax and export quota limitation against the international trade rules, must be correct, that in today's world trade disputes are from "access" to "must extend out '. Of course, the world trade organization also support the Chinese several of the request and the overthrow of the expert group about the quota allocation management, and export license and export quota bidding, minimum prices at the ruling, although not simply in order to "take care of face", but still difficult to essentially shake the Chinese "losing 'situation, can saying is the consequences will be severe, in addition to the' link from 'must threaten to the independence of China's foreign trade policy with national economic safety, also from' a 'link must prevents China trade country to trade power from the process.

In the face of China's trade dispute from "access" to "the 'extensions are allowed jiancheng trend. Look ahead, as early as in 2004, the eu is asking China to let go of coke export restrictions, otherwise will resort to the world trade organization. Although central Europe dc hats the two sides finally reached an agreement, but alarming: in addition to "access" link, the trade friction also exist in 'must out' link. Look back, the world trade organization in China "judge" losing "also will produce negative demonstrative effect. As the New York times says, western challenge Chinese restrictions on rare earth, including the other natural resources are an example to follow the export.

The 'lost' exposed some of our own 'soft rib'. According to China's wto commitments, in addition to the 84 tax, such as zinc products outside, cancel the export products all taxes. The world trade organization is prohibited export restrictions, but allow 'exceptions', such as permitting for protecting ecological environment and export restrictions. However, if in order to protect the ecological environment, both for export or sale in domestic market, will take the same restrictions, but not limited to the 'must out'. Now is intertwine, extensive pattern of economic growth in the next, with important mineral resources collection of related domestic tax will be unable to downstream industry, and to change the mode of economic growth is not built in a day.

For the world trade organization this "' decision", our heart is unwilling. Do as you would be done by. The United States is the world's proven reserves on the most abundant one of the countries, but the United States to own the mineral resources protection have add, the but again asked China to increase the export of mineral resources. Only the United States need to protect people stumped ecological environment, the Chinese don't need? At the same time, now many countries have export restrictions, such as the United States limits exports of high New Era Hats technology, Australia and Brazil's three big mining joint control iron ore prices, Russia will also tax on food exports, why the wto with China but it happened can not pass?

No doubt, China in 'a' link must limit the export of raw materials of the original intention of goodwill. From the protection of ecological environment and change the way of foreign trade growth needs to see, China should not be long-term and many cheap export of raw materials, need to improve the export products of technology content and added value. In this sense, the western countries don't have to limit China's export of raw materials flustered. I'd come up with an idea, the western countries to gain more from China of raw materials, simply take the advanced technology to China, using China's raw materials and labor resources for deep processing. So, China's industry also upgrade, and these western countries can get more raw materials from China, such cooperation not kill two birds with one stone, why always to the world trade organization there to accuse China of shape?


Posted by terminalcables at 9:00 PM EST
Saturday, 11 February 2012
Willing to jointly maintain peace on the Korean peninsula

In a meeting with hu jintao wild tian when ", says the north Korean keep stability and development, maintain peace and stability on the Korean peninsula, accord with the relevant parties common interests, and also is the common expectation of the international community. China is willing to include Japan, with the relevant parties together, to safeguard peace and stability on the Korean peninsula, and realize the peninsula and lasting peace and stability in northeast Asia and work together.

Wild tian mitsuka, says that face the situation on the Korean peninsula new change, to strengthen cooperation between the two countries, maintaining peace and stability in the peninsula, this is the common interests of Japanese willing to communicate with China on.

According to blow yesterday afternoon of the Japanese government officials said, the Chinese side also expressed to restart the stalled six-party talks, and promote Korean peninsula denuclearization process, to ensure the long-term stability of the Korean peninsula will.

"Strengthening the relations between the two countries in the region, to solve the world's problems and is indispensable." Wild tian said ", "China as the role of the presidency of the six party talks, is very important." Since 2008, the six party talks have been stagnant. This time, "said wild tian, in view of the situation of the Korean peninsula, the two sides should keep close contact and ensure New Era Hats that regional security.

At the same time, in view of the sino-japanese relations, hu pointed out that in the past year, the relations between the two countries overall present positive momentum of development. September this year, Japan's new cabinet is established, the relations between the two countries realize a good start to the season. The two countries insist on peace, friendship, cooperation way, continuously consolidate and develop the strategic and mutually beneficial relations,Replica MLB hats to achieve mutual benefit and common development, also be helpful for Asia and world peace, stability and development, prosperity.

"Next year will have the normalization of 40 years." Hu jintao said, "China is willing to with Japan, lifted up a banner of sino-japanese friendship, careful planning and run the memorial activities and" the national communication in 'activities, according to a friendly between the four political documents to determine the principles and both sides of a series of important consensus, in line with the spirit of the mirror, face the future, promote political mutual trust, expand exchanges cooperation, common the china-japan strategic and mutually beneficial relations new situation."

Wild tian mitsuka argues that, China's development for Japan and the world are opportunities. The normalization of 40 years, japan-china relations witnessed realize development. Both trade and personnel exchanges a sharp increase, the two governments in the japan-china four political documents spirit and promote the relations between the two countries to move ahead.

On September 29, 1972, China and Japan government made the sino-japanese joint declaration, realize the normalization. Next year is the normalization of 40 years.


Posted by terminalcables at 9:58 PM EST
Thursday, 9 February 2012
From court lawyer, the power to trample upon justice

Now on the "LiQingHong SheHei case" trial, the public's largest expectations, natural is also hope to can see our social ecological have already have strong repair itself function, can feel the power of China's social progress. Here without too much getting entangled in LiQingHong has "black" suspense, after all, all charges all need evidence and legal theory to prove. The problem is, now the judgment of the court present situation, just can't provide for the confirmed a at least the legal procedures. Because the court has been will and the dialogue between a lawyer, has been placed in legal framework on the outside. This trial finally nature also can only into the power of judges one-way conversation.

Might as well take a look at the performance of the court-the second day scheduled 9 in the morning session, a collegial panel members until 10 PM to declare the hearing. Defense attorney LiJinXing attest to the judge said the request from the prosecutor did not reply application for reconsideration, continue to the hearing illegal; An hour later and the court, and the court should do that; In delay during the hearing, the New Era Hats public prosecutor frequent judgement on collegial panel and communication, obvious inappropriateness, conspicuously justice. All this in the legal framework of rational expression, but the result will is angered the presiding judge, he ordered his deputies put LiJinXing expelled from the court, then several lawyers lifted up his hand to ask for the floor, are not allowed to, also caused more lawyers were expelled and warning.

Punishment law in such divides his dilemma, can let a person feel the court has no longer is a sacred place of clean, but a power against the rule of law mocked playgrounds. As long as a little at least legal common sense, they all know, court of various performance, is to the dignity of the law openly trampled. For example, questioning the logic of the court lawyer, is very funny. A lawyer should cooperate, one should be legal justice, not the judge. The court should do, is in accordance with the relevant legal procedure, to law enforcement for lawyers to provide a full free practice environment, rather than the lawyers in the cage with power, even directly out of the court, to deprive them present rights. If even the judge all no longer faith in law, so, how can the rule for the public's trust and support?

The American bar association President Robert j. Grey once said, "if the judge is the keeper of the people's rights, lawyers association and its members is infantry", from that, it defend the dignity of the law and safeguard judicial justice, originally is the judge and lawyers common mission. "LiQingHong SheHei case" present situation of trial, just goes, the judge is no longer the keeper of the people's rights, but to become slaves of power, like half reveal the right of mei smile, like half show trampled just pretty bully. In China, a lawyer law contend punishment resources was is far from meeting the context of public demand, so the happening of the scene, no doubt, again exposed divides punishment, a lawyer itself is a big risk, and further intensify the group to pass laws of social justice difficult degree, thus buy sunglasses have great social negative effect.

Thankfully, whether it had "LiZhuang case" in the second quarter, or is it a "LiQingHong SheHei case", China lawyer group are still divides punishment showed great defending the law of conscience courage and determination. Now the lawyer's legal view and a focus on our focus, is itself a testament to the best. Of course, the law reinforcements, and the only lawyer group by itself was not enough, and in some parts of the judicial independence cannot be fully guaranteed, lawyer group clearly not completely stopped lived those above the power. Fortunately, standing in front of the they are not alone, public opinion and conscience of the polymerization of forces, and in the freedom of information transmission channel, can let stand in the legal basis of the group, resist lived more power from wind erosion. Because in the public mind, also believe that a once incomparably loud defense-" justice while not the present but, we wait to have ".

Now that rule by law is always guarantee social equity and justice we the most solid forts and defence, so, now face "LiQingHong SheHei case" appeared in the trial of the lawyer was ejected from the courtroom of the frightening scene, natural who should not be in control. And how to let the rule of "man" is not in power under fort easily, in fact all kinds of social force participation in the intervention, it has provided a the best answers, and that was to public opinion to the largest extent drive power must be in a democratic and legal orbit operation.

Posted by terminalcables at 9:06 PM EST
Wednesday, 8 February 2012
Stop mortgage loan is a good solution
Believe that all the people remember early RenZhiJiang before for developers "propaganda" thing, then head of said, developers should take the initiative to avoid price cut government issued fire fire stronger control policies. Later proof "prime minister" does not many people listen to, in fact this is normal, when house prices are still strong, active price cut is when the street and money, for any a developer for all to be unbearable. But the deeper reason lies in, developers generally thought to be carried on government regulation, this is how many years has accumulated experience in the market, the results who also have never thought the government energy consumption so long.
May 16,, the People's Daily KanWen, borrow China real estate association and vice President of a mouth of transfer so a meaning: developers don't DaoBi government has issued more stringent policy. Here the so-called government is mainly refers to the central government. In fact, develop business not active price cut, it doesn't matter, local governments can take various strategies manufacturing in order to achieve the appearance of market downturn protect the NFL hats purpose of developers, such as limit listed, promoting low-cost high building dish dish listing, etc. Can say, for "realization" control target relevant parties have tried it milk strength, and from a level analysis we draw the conclusion: the house prices do not fall.
Recent media have a report, zengcheng city, guangdong government issued a notice asked local single building dish the mark-up shall not exceed 5%, affected by this early may local prices tumbled 2-4 into, policy amazing results. Such "crooked" take temporary solution not effect a permanent cure tone, but the local government obviously feel very useful.
On the other hand, now the central control policy on the introduction of the most take temporary solution not effect a permanent, such as , be restricted to the loan, the limit. It is said that permanent cure is DaJian security room and collecting the house property tax, but security room plan from 2010 in 5.8 million to 2011 in 10 million set set, wholesale Cheap sunglasses and then to the next four years of 26 million, a series of data have to throw out house prices increase pressure? At least I didn't feel it.
On May 17,, live JianBu policy research center director of council declared, security room for only own strength can not solve the housing problem of the low end of the disadvantaged groups, that is, the low-end difficult groups need to solve the housing problem by market, or lease and rent. The key is, guarantee of the construction of the room occupied much of the land and other resources, this will push commodity house prices, this is the government DaJian security room side effects.
Again to see house property tax. Chongqing and Shanghai trial so far had little effect, with Shanghai as an example, the trial was produced only 3 up more than 100 yuan, have what use?
House property tax is zero, safeguard function room and pushing up commodity prices, the so-called permanent cure completely groundless, so, the second half can also control rely on what drop prices?
Measures of course, it is Mr Pan said: stop mortgage loans. As long as this policy, the developers will surely whining everywhere, but only for a time. The results of the corresponding control crazy will only is the market going crazy, once the policy exit is waiting to see the drama alone.

Posted by terminalcables at 9:23 PM EST
Tuesday, 7 February 2012
The United States economic crisis in the past
The subprime crisis caused by the American economic crisis has for more than 3 years, many economists believe that led to the American economy a double-dip recession (" Double dip recession ") the possibility of a small. They think this year the state of the us economy better than last year, basically have out of the crisis.
In my opinion, the so-called "double bottom recession" is based on the stock market graphics, and the stock market is already not reflect economic fundamentals, didn't play the role of a barometer. In fact, America's current economic problems, namely to housing market as the center, take the high debt and unemployment rate for basic points. As long as the three problem is solved, the financial crisis is far from over. And these three questions, just like we used to play of the seesaw, press the leader, the leader and cutting up.
U.S. budget deficit, debt amount has reached the latest data astronomical, total debt (company debt + personal debt + national debt) of owe $70 trillion, the average American people owe $230000, converted into renminbi in word is a "negative" everyone arrived. And now the us currency reserves and bank reserve totaled $2.7 trillion, based on the above data calculation, America's leverage MLB hats over for 26 times. In contrast, Lehman Brothers, Lehman Brothers) in before collapse, leverage ratio is about 31 times, distance is not far. Single federal national debt is has reached 14.5 trillion us dollars. Not as inferior as debt than Europe each year, pay interest only, use to finance income more than half and see a ruinous, are going to play it no more. No wonder that even HuDuZi "has always been" s&p also had to cut the United States for the first time ever of the national debt rating outlook. The early days of the democratic republican party for two financial budget dispute, make the government are almost stopped working. But if reduce red wealth, that means the government to reduce spending, reduce large infrastructure project and reduce personal consumption. This way, the unemployment rate will rise further.
While the unemployment rate is the housing market's biggest killer. The housing market from July 2006, have been declining for nearly five years, still "stumble" endlessly. If the housing market fall further words, negative assets families more and more, and then take the number of house method will follow up, financial institutions will continue to fall (the United States so far 600 Banks on the brink of bankruptcy or closure), all walks of life will be joint with further damaged, the financial crisis will be developing in depth.
If managed to reduce the unemployment rate? Now private corporations, the job market remains frozen, even if part of the enterprise began to hire employees, also is not with the signing of welfare position, people's eyes can only pegged to the government. The two years, government spending increased, invested a lot of infrastructure project, and become the largest employers. The early days of the so-called "the unemployment rate dropped a little", a closer look up, the new jobs are mostly low paid temporary work, such as for the government to the census, a one-time employs more than 40 casual, apparently employment and no better.
But the government and have no money, we can only continue to borrowing money, money is red can only continue to rise, although it is a "debt much not sorrow", but in this case the financial crisis to the past? 
Therefore, in the previous stage so-called "economic recovery", in fact, is the United States government spending help city, playing huge results. The crux of the financial crisis the government thought is that the liquidity shortage and loss of confidence, as long as the infuse capital will stop the vicious circle of economy, people buy sunglasses back to the housing market, the economy will return to positive cycle. This in the short run "effective", but with the help city near the end, looser monetary stop, the short-term dawn is at an end. And the United States in the past of those years of growth, itself is by loosening credit, stimulating consumption, how much of the debt by trillions of Cyprus.
Because for more than 30 years, the United States has been encouraged borrowing and spending and investment in the form of the consequences of huge foam, is the root of this financial crisis, the people are in the huge bust in.
Now the economy is globalization, but global employment, entrepreneurs and consumer confidence have no real recovery. This global economic recession is unprecedented, even one of the first to make the bubble greenspan, called the most serious. A more difficult in the recession is over, is not a new, can replace the first 30 years continuously cause foam, advance the economic model of consumer lending. For two or three years the government bend over backwards to save the day of strategy--further to relax credit, is actually the blow to the bubble. The fact that the old model doesn't work anymore. In the United States, the state of the economy, obviously is the continuing decline of the sign, the double bottom recession makes no difference.

Posted by terminalcables at 10:19 PM EST
Monday, 6 February 2012
In the history of the house price adjustment measures failure
Recently, some cities across the country has promulgated a house price control target, basically confirmed the upper limit of ShangZhangLv house prices, some cities give a specific upper limit, some ShangZhangLv cap the house prices with GDP growth or personal disposable income growth hooks.
Can say, this is the biggest failure of the house price adjustment measures. House prices can control target publicly? House prices are DiaoKongZhe by regulation and control of the parties to a game, so house prices control key lies in the regulatory expectations, in house prices and regulation between target will eventually form a positive feedback mechanism: if the government's target ShangZhangLv house prices is positive, so people can form the expected rise in house prices, will grasp to buy a house, thus further push the high prices ShangZhangLv, final government targets will be lost; If, on the other hand, if the government's target ShangZhangLv house prices is negative, so people can form expectations of falling house prices, will further the currency wait-and-see, thus further promote MLB hats falling house prices, the goal of ultimately the government will also be lost; If the government's target ShangZhangLv house prices is 0, and common people believe it, house prices could were steady, if people don't believe, house prices will go down the historical inertia, continue to rise up, dropping continue to fall. Therefore, house prices control target is not declared, and must be kept strictly confidential and will not even sure clear house price control target, just through other measures to guide the common people's expectations or adjustment of the price of the house on the other basic decision factors.
Can expect, the government set these goals will eventually lost half. To let it fail, have two kinds of methods. First, through the other way to adjust the real estate market. But in rising house prices expected be strengthened and common people on the government in this on one hand the confidence of the poor situation, difficult, if successful, pay also will be very big. Second, fake data. In hard to reach control target, the government can do a false data, anyway, people don't understand the comprehensive information, just hope don't appear house prices have nfl hats nearly doubled under the condition of the statistical data is only 1.5% of that house prices rising jokes.
Throughout our country in recent years on the introduction of the some measures to house prices, although the old in said to regulatory expectations, but did not actually in the policy reflected. Government regulation goal has been "inhibit the rapid increase of the house prices," all over now and issued a clear target prices rise, apparently didn't take to common people's reaction. Macro regulation is the game between with people, not people with the game between stone; Stone does not respond to the person's behavior, but people will have a reaction, even people will also have their own grassroots measures, the so-called "policy, the distorted policy-implementation in fact is that every one of the natural reaction, don't have any problems, have a problem is DiaoKongZhe to turn a blind eye to it to or blame. They may think, they said those something indistinctly weasel words people don't understand, "the tao is the eyes are discerning", the macro-economics a famous school, the rational anticipated school, also have a saying: "you want to fool all of the people, it will eventually be all fool". After a round of regulation change "air conditioning", the government credit more and more low, regulation difficulty also more and more big.

Posted by terminalcables at 9:20 PM EST

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