Many organizations and researchers all think currently, economy next year increase to soon be probably lower than this year, how treat next year's whole economic situation?
Wang Xiao Lu:Currently the bottom of economic emergence's going is ineluctable, everyone has to have this mental preparation, accept this to descend.Now is seen and descends the trend that still is soft to land in the line.The growth rate will be lower than 9% next year, if decline to 8% nothing important also is fantastic.But the key wants to promote to reform and adjust a structure, change development method, pass reform, adjustment and transformation Los Angeles Lakers Fitted Hat to guarantee in the future more long-term development can keep on.
Important reason that goes under the economic emergence is to export a growth to put slowly.Chinese economic growth's passing by these years has already formed a kind of structure and form, be consume to economy of pull action to use limited, more pull near the investment and the exit economy;If export to put slowly, trade surplus narrow, but consume still ascend not come of words, want to protect speed, only depend on investment to pull economy.
But China's passing by has already used almost half of GDPs to invest, this is the highest proportion.If continuing to be pulled an economic growth by extension investment will bring what result?First is produce ability to quickly extend;After productivity extends, the product has to absorb by consuming or exporting.If both are all not enough to absorb, will cause productivity excess, the investment will become an invalid investment, the growth still needs to drop down.And extend more fierce, will drop more maliciously in the future.
China livings:Chinese economy's increasing is lower than someones of 10% surprised shout not good, economic slippery ascent.In fact, Chinese economy increases soon and appropriately next the line is to have an advantage to the whole economy, help us new era hats to adjust economic structure, contribute to reducing Reminbi appreciation pressure.Now formerly three quarter the degree see, is all several at 9:00, compare with other nations in the world, still a high speed degree.
We'25'what programming settle is five years, GDP increases 7% on the average, settle what are 7% meaning ?Be say that arriving low 5% or 6% are also normal for some year, because some years will be a little bit high and arrive 8% or 9%.Is total to come to say, my thinking or so economy of 8% to increase speed is very good, than ours'25'program average level Gao Yi Ge's point is still.Should allow economy growth to contain motion.
Newspaper:How to judge next year macroscopic economic policy?
Wang Xiao Lu:If for pulling economy, make a relaxed policy again, make an incitement again economy, will form vicious cycle, larger to the injury of Chinese economy.Is down to date we are still swallowing past over- relaxed letter loan the policy bring of consequence.Resist inflation in fact is a painful process.
Next year's macroscopic economic policy has to be appropriate, can not say tight tight arrive the business enterprise cannot live, loosen over- relaxed.The situation in nowadays needs to carry on a policy to be tiny to adjust, but can in no way make over- relaxed.The moderation of policy very key.In regard to next year, consume of three greatest factor in the center, the exit can not be too optimistic and invest an ability not again excessively stimulate, can not make the large-scale investment pulls, the key lieses in start to consume.But start consume again a series of problem of involving the income allotment.These problems all relate to existing system blemish, the public resources assigns not appropriate, all levels government's excessively falling overboard for investment, public service and society guarantee isn't good enough.
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