The national bureau of statistics in on October 18, 2011 economic data released, in the previous three quarters of 32.0692 trillion yuan GDP, according to the comparable price, an increase of 9.4%. Divide a quarter to see, quarter grew 9.7%, 9.5% growth in the second quarter, 9.1% growth in the third quarter.
From these data to see, economic growth is in constant deceleration process. That year of four trillion, also estimated to take over, so the growth rate drop down is very normal. The debt crisis, the United States economic drag, China is faced with difficulties in exports is heavy. Although China's economy in four trillion under the stimulus, once can maintain the high-speed growth, but this stimulation disappeared, economic growth speed also began to fall down.
Since 2011, the real estate market face difficulties. A city rising house prices have stopped, house prices have started to loose. A line of estate depreciate sales promotion, individual cut prices to a third. The bank also improve down proportion, MLB hats improve the mortgage interest rates and thus winter ahead of preparation. From the whole situation to see, the real estate market in 2012 will be facing a big difficult.
Economic stimulus policy, besides manufacturing inflation, but also lead to local government debt increasing. By the end of 2010, the local government debt has more than 10 trillion yuan. The national multiple high iron construction fund fracture, within the territory of guangdong province, deep and wide, south of tall your widely different degree of high iron appear to stop.
Although 2011 local government invested in security room, but also continue to push the high local government debt. Income from the local government is to be many major income, however, with the real estate market continuously came near the winter, developers to take initiative more and more low, leading to the local government of prime from shrinking revenue.
The real estate market problems that will inevitably affect the related industry. Globally, the demand for steel will be reduced. Domestic real estate market into winter, as less demand for steel. At the same time, affects not only the steel demand, for decoration industry, construction workers and so on, needs is also down sharply. In addition, several high iron to cease, and also affect steel demand. In the stimulus, that is already produce excess capacity, estimate the problem in 2012 will be more serious.
In 2012, China's economic growth rate will be further lowered. Because of the funds, which may have a lot of projects to start construction as scheduled or not can't accomplish duly investment scale. Expected, the yuan will continue to rise, this is very adverse to export. In the long run, the yuan appreciation to one us dollar may be the time to stop four RMB appreciation. Can say, the future of the export enterprise more and not do.
From all the signs to see, China's economy may be into the winter. China will change the past has long relied on the situation of export-oriented economy, positive start domestic consumption market. To solve the problems of domestic demand, basically not on stimulus, but in legal field to reform. I think the future direction of the reform, which is in the law environment. China in law environment field, may be said to be very bad. Therefore, to the NFL Jerseys rule by law perspective, establishing a domestic business spirit, to severely punish all kinds of fraud, including violates the contract spirit.
In fact, China's economy will face winter is not a bad thing, but is a turning point. From another Angle, this also is the good opportunity to correct the past mistakes. At the same time, also let people realized make stimulate the economy, and can't really solve economic crisis, but in a vicious among the bad.
If the future for a period of time, house prices will drop significantly, the ChaoFang people it is also a lesson. This tells people, house prices is not a only a don't fall things. If house prices in 2012 appear slump, this for many people is a good thing. For a house, it may damage was the house market value, but will not affect their living environment. To those poor people, who may have hope to own their own homes.
China's economy is only a correct understanding of the winter it is true, have a chance to spring, which again to summer. So, I think the official and the people learn to bear this winter, otherwise will never solve the problem.